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By Stephen Murgatroyd - February 24, The emergence of formerly poor nations Myanmar and Bangladesh, for example into moderately wealthy modern nations. The unequal distribution of wealth and the fact that this unequalness is getting more unequal rather than less so — the rich are getting richer at the expense of the middle class. Changing social structures — especially family, marriage, work, community and sense of identity and meaning. The demographic deficit — people are not replacing themselves in their own communities and therefore societies rely more and more on immigration and labour mobility to stay the same economically Canada is a good example of this.
By Stephen Murgatroyd - February 19, What evidence exists which suggests that the scenario has merit? What are the implications of the scenario?
By Stephen Murgatroyd - February 12, Psychologists understand this phenomenon and have developed a thorough understanding of just how wrong experts can be. He conducted a long-running experiment that asked nearly political experts to make a variety of forecasts about dozens of countries around the world.
After tracking the accuracy of about 80, predictions over the course of 20 years, Tetlock found:.
In a number of previous contributions to the literature of educational leadership Murgatroyd and Gray ; Murgatroyd and Reynolds a; b; Murgatroyd emphasis has been given to the notion that individuals within or attached to organizations can facilitate It is very common for our human brains to believe we are recognizing patterns that are only a random sequence of events. But this vision is elusive and unclear, with many articulating a bleak view of the future. I wish to be contacted with the results of the investigation. So beware of predictions, especially those made by experts. Stephen Murgatroyd Making a difference to organizations through challenge, change and innovation. There are other psychological features of the expert that are worthy of reflection.
That experts thought they knew more than they knew. How did they do relative to purely random guessing strategy? Well, they did a little bit better than that, but not as much as you might hope …. These are primary causes of experts getting it wrong. The illusion of understanding refers to the idea that the world is more knowable than it actually is. In particular, experts believe that they have an in-depth and insightful understanding of the past and this enables them to better understand the future.
The views exist independently of the evidence to support them. Those committed to the view that human produced CO2 is the primary cause of climate change are not deterred by evidence that it may not be or that climate change has stalled for the last seventeen years.
Experts are sustained in their beliefs by a professional culture that supports them. All remain ignorant of their ignorance and are sustained in their belief systems by selected use of evidence and by the support of stalwarts. These supportive networks and environments help sustain the illusion of validity. Austerians who look at the failure of their policies in Europe, for example, suggest that the austerity did not go far enough; anthroprocene climatologists see the lack of warming over the last seventeen years as proof that they are right, it is just that the timing is a little out.
We can see this in spades in both economics and climate change. This overconfidence and arrogance comes from being regarded as one of the leading climate scientists in the world — evidence is not as important as the claim or the person making it. Hanson suffers from the illusion of skill. Kahneman recognizes people like Hansen. There are other psychological features of the expert that are worthy of reflection. The power of a group they will claim consensus as if this ends scientific debate to close ranks and limit the scope of conversation or act as gatekeepers for the conversation.
He suggests these features:. There is also the issue of the focusing illusion. Society faces a great many challenges.
Much will depend on our own preoccupations and what focus one takes for the concerns you have. Some are more concerned about the future of Manchester United or Chelsea football clubs than they are about debt, deficits, or climate change.
He explains that we can make use of very short-term guesses or predictions, but long-term forecasts are nothing more than pure guesswork. We are guilty of ascribing far too much predictability to the truly unpredictable.
It is very common for our human brains to believe we are recognizing patterns that are only a random sequence of events. Experts have tried to overcome our human fallacies with tools such as quantitative modeling. However, even these models play only on our biases. We believe that models that have accurately predicted the future in the past are likely to predict the future going forward. But that is no more true than believing me when I tell you that a coin will land heads up just because I accurately predicted it would do so the last ten times.
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