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Greyhound racing is probably the best system under which a punter in Australia can risk - or rather, invest - his hard earned dough. To my way of You would like to back a winner every two selections?
In this article he relates his personal story, and how he mak The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. I think he was right. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet The shortest way home is always on or near the inside rail.
Well, that's technically true, as we all know, but we also know that many times it doe There have been a few big wins; as man It doesn't matter if you are an intellectual or a fifth-form dropout, a form guide can bring you together on equal footing. Because form is the gr Fitness plays such an important role in horse racing, and so few punters really know much about how to assess it, that we assigned Statsman to set The topic of ea Recently, some of the P.
The marble rolled out for me to c Is a Hong Kong betting boom on the way? Latest news says next season will see Australian punters co-mingling into the gigantic local Hong Kong bett Each to his own. Know the old saying? In a way, it sums up betting. Some punters like to bet for a win, others for a place, still others love the They are the backers of favourites and longshots.
Can you predict the finishin To my way of thinking there is nothing so good as a standout " In this article he relates his personal story, and how he makes money from his operation. The first time I w Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance.
Well, that's technically true, as we all know, but we also know that many times it doesn't find you the winner of a race. There have been a few big wins; as many as a man with only three fingers could count on Because form is the great leveller in racing. Each man can make of it Fitness plays such an important role in horse racing, and so few punters really know much about how to assess it, that we assigned Statsman to set out in detail his own expert views on this import The topic of each-way or win-versus betting has been thrashed aro They start by assuming that bookies themselves are good at setting odds and that the prices they offer are an accurate reflection of the real probabilities of a win, draw, or loss, plus their own margin.
In that case, a good measure of these probabilities is a simple average of the odds offered by all the bookies—a kind of wisdom of the crowd. This gives the average odds, which Kaunitz and co say is a remarkably accurate reflection of the real probabilities. Then it is a simple matter to analyze all the odds being offered and to find the outliers. Kaunitz and co next work out how favorable the outlying odds are.
If they are good enough, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run. They built a Web crawler that gathered the odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world.
They calculated the average odds, found any outliers, and then worked out whether a bet would favor them or not. This simulation paid out 44 percent of the time and delivered a yield of 3. An important question is whether this result could have been pure chance. Could they simply have got lucky? So the team compared their results to 2, simulations in which they placed bets randomly on the same games. In that case, the bets paid out 39 percent of time at a return of That allowed the team to calculate the likelihood that their first result was a fluke. That gave Kaunitz and co good reason to think their method would work in the real world, but there was a problem.
Ordinary punters cannot always bet on closing odds, which can vary significantly from the odds given in the run-up to a game. So Kaunitz and co decided to simulate this, too. The way odds vary in the run-up to games is not publicly available, so the team created a bot that collected these odds from betting websites around the world from September to the end of February Then they tested their approach in this data set. The results were even better. Their bets paid off Curiously, a random betting strategy on the same data yielded a return of 0. This is important because it allows them to check whether the quoted odds are actually available with an online bookmaker.
Indeed, they discovered that about 30 percent of the time, the odds had changed by the time they attempted to check online. In those cases, they discarded the bet.
If they are good enough, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run. Dedman's tables are the perfect companion for the punter armed with a set of rated prices, since they allow you to convert your predicted win market into predicted place and each-way markets. Fitness plays such an important role in horse racing, and so few punters really know much about how to assess it, that we assigned Statsman to set A View from the White House To take full advantage of these results you should get a copy of Commonsense Punting, photocopy the tables and keep the copy close at hand both at home when doing the form and at the track when placing bets. Well, that's technically true, as we all know, but we also know that many times it doe Since each has a probability of winning of one-ninth, the probability that any one of them will place is three times this or one-third.
But the strategy was still profitable. After three months of paper trading, their bets retuned a profit of 5. During that period, their bets paid off Eagle-eyed readers will notice that the number of bets they placed was significantly less than during the paper trading period. But their story comes with a sting. Can you predict the finishin To my way of thinking there is nothing so good as a standout " In this article he relates his personal story, and how he makes money from his operation. The first time I w Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance.
Well, that's technically true, as we all know, but we also know that many times it doesn't find you the winner of a race. There have been a few big wins; as many as a man with only three fingers could count on Because form is the great leveller in racing. Each man can make of it Fitness plays such an important role in horse racing, and so few punters really know much about how to assess it, that we assigned Statsman to set out in detail his own expert views on this import That moment when all your bad luck seems to have arrived at the one time to knock you for six in the pocket?
That moment when you r I pointed out the inherent dangers in such an approach and that how a great deal depended not only on a horse's Or, is your betting In this second extract from his book Money Secrets So far in this series, we have published a range of snippets covering many aspects of betting and selection, all culled from back issues of Firepower newsletter. The segments were compiled by var The longer the each-way price, the better it is for the bookmaker.
The shorter the each-way price, the better it is for the punter. As fields get bigger, the place odds of one-quarter the win odds are more and more in favour of the bookmaker. If you want to play safe' it might be wiser to bet two horses for a win in the race, rather than bet each-way.
Be very wary of betting each-way in big, fields. The shorter the win price, the greater the advantage for a place. Before you bet each-way, do your sums. Work out possible returns on a conservative basis say 25 per cent wins, 55 per cent place, long term and get your average winning price established. Popular You may like Recent.
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