The Light in the Middle of the Tunnel

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Abstract dots background light in blue color disco style. Colorful psychedelic abstract sun burst background design - vector explosive graphic with blank space in the middle. Colorful abstract hypnotic sun burst background design - vector explosive illustration with blank space in the middle. Blur tunnel to the middle of temple. Abdoun bridge at night in Amman jordan - light trails at night. Old historic medieval mine with tree roots growing through vaulted brick ceiling illuminated by backlit.

Creative Long time exposure photography in backlight. Medieval dungeon corridor with ray of light in the middle. Lane of trees with a pathway down the middle. Old historic medieval mine with vaulted brick ceiling illuminated by backlit. Acre, Israel - December 20 People walking along the narrow alleyway in the Old City Acre, an ancient port city. Green road in the middle of the forest. Blur outdoor place traveler or business man on walkway tunnel or cross way outdoor with sunlight in the metropolis middle city at morning.

Passenger car, seen from the side of the roof, driving in the middle lane of a motorway, driving through a tunnel. Allahverdi Khan Bridge Si-o-seh pol , ancient bridge in Isfahan. In the middle of the elevators. Middle part of tunnel.

Businessman standing in the middle of railway tunnel. Path in the middle of a forest. Rays of lights in the middle of Cave. Businessman with briefcase walks though grungy urban tunnel in the middle of the road. Tunnel with asphalt road in the middle. Vector abstract technological middle tunnel template design. Medieval dungeon - a wooden table in the middle of the hall in the ancient catacombs. Abstract orange lights in perspective in a road tunnel. Black and white shot was taken in the middle of two wooden street benches standing against eachother.

Abstract orange, red and yellow lights in road tunnel that can be used as texture or background. The colorful formations in the middle of shorter branch with a lot of big rocks and stones. Plumeria tree tunnel in autumn season with rocky path in the middle.

A cobble stoned pedestrian arched tunnel in the old town of Lucern, Switzerland. Isfahan, Iran - September 23, Ancient architecture of the bridge in Isfahan. Heritage of ancient Persia.

Light in the middle of the tunnel.

Jerusalem at night Israel, Jerusalem: The streets of the old city at night. Ukly streets, red lights, yellow walls. Abstract Circle frame from tunnel with exposed light for put content in the middle.

Young girl walking in the path of sunlight in the middle of a tree tunnel. Night scene close up side view of a highway and guardrail, illuminated street light and a warning sign against a black sky background. Copy space for text on black. Entrance to the ancient Italian church of the Middle Ages. Needless to say the stimulus would be self-defeating if it results in higher yields for Japanese government bonds. Until now, the stable domestic domestic investor base has shielded the government from the whims of the market figure 6.

As more workers retire and liquidate their holdings of government bonds e. This might push long-term interest rates higher if foreign investors expect the exchange rate to depreciate or that the government will eventually default explicitly or implicitly i. All in all, we do not expect Japan to face a fiscal crisis in the short-term, but the government cannot postpone the day of reckoning forever.

The Chinese economy, that had shown declining annual growth figures for seven consecutive quarters, dug itself out of that hole to end the year on a higher note, posting 7. The benefit is that inflationary pressures will be more limited while the adverse impact on banks is smaller as well.

Although the short-term growth outlook remains relatively strong, the medium-term risks in China are still non-negligible. Six years ago, Premier Wen Jiabao cautioned that the economy is "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable. Much to our regret, the government has not taken enough measures to rebalance the economy towards more private consumption.

Although official figures state that non-performing loans are still at a low level, the real situation is direr, in our view. The amount of credit in China is likely to be much larger than official figures lead us to believe. Economic activity seems to have picked up in many emerging economies. Recent monetary policy loosening figure 8 and a general increase in global trade should provide a boost to growth in Figure 9 shows that manufacturing PMIs in most major emerging countries are now above 50, indicating an expansion of output. Economic growth in is therefore expected to be slightly higher than in This would imply that in spite of sluggish growth in the industrialised world, there are signs that the emerging economies are partly decoupling from their bigger brothers.

If power were in the numbers, the emerging market consumer would definitely be capable of keeping the global economy afloat. With the industrialised countries unable to find the throttle, and governments being less willing and able to go on another spending spree, private sector consumption in the emerging countries will now have to prove itself as a sustainable source of domestic growth.

And this will be difficult. We can take Brazil as a successful example of a country in which domestic consumption has supported growth. Not only were the poverty alleviation programmes of the government hugely successful in generating new consumers, these efforts were backed by booming commodity prices, leading to windfall gains for the public sector. Also, Brazilian banks have been very willing to lend to consumers.

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While the latter is a typical Brazilian phenomenon, the former windfall gains leading to increased consumer demand is not. The emerging markets have benefitted from high commodity prices due to rising demand in the western world in the s. This is simply not a sustainable growth model, and a rebalancing act, towards a more consumption-driven model will have to take place.

However, in the mean time there are far too many restrictions for consumers that will need to be addressed such as insufficient healthcare systems, a lack of social safety nets and financial illiteracy. And lest we forget, the emerging market consumer is vastly poorer than his western counterpart. As the world is anticipating a rise in the Asian consumer, the two most populous countries in the world have All these are structural impediments to consumers around the world to support the global economy. Currently, the emerging market consumer will still need demand from western economies to spur growth, and boost domestic consumption.

Given the mixed signals emanating from the global economy, it is difficult to identify the type of light we are seeing at the end of the tunnel. On a positive note, the eurozone crisis has not completely returned even after the disappointing election results in Italy.

This gives us a feeling that, although the region is still in a fragile state, it has become more resilient to adverse shocks. The country is expected to grow, albeit modestly, amid a sizable fiscal tightening. Japan has started experimenting with a more aggressive macro policy response. The commodity producing countries would be particularly benefiting.

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The rest of the emerging countries are also witnessing a rise in economic activity thanks, in part, to loosening monetary policies. But we must be under no illusion that considerable challenges are ahead of us. The global recovery continues to be slow and policy complacency can make matters worse. European policymakers must make haste with the advancement of the European integration process.

The light and the tunnel

Japan still very much needs a medium term fiscal consolidation plan. The emerging markets, especially China, must place economic rebalancing at the top of their policy agenda instead of resorting to measures e. If progress is made on all these fronts, cautious optimism may indeed be justified.

This is a translation of a part of the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly. Did you like this article? Could you maybe inform us why you do not like this article? Could you maybe inform us why you like this article?

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