Bilanz der Arbeitsmarktpolitikreformen (German Edition)

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Between and , the Catalan movement for independence displayed extraordinary capacity for mobilisation, managing to bring a million people onto the streets of Barcelona almost every year. The movement was peaceful, optimistic and celebratory, confident that separation from Spain was eminently achievable and imminent.

Independence never an inevitability

However, this relentlessly upbeat outlook seemed to prevent recognition of hard political reality. In spite of public statements from a range of international leaders, including the European Union, supporting the continued unity of Spain, the movement told itself that when the time came, recognition for Catalonia was inevitable. While arguably it had little choice, the EU has backed Spain in the Catalan dispute.

One consequence has been a eurosceptic turn within the Catalan independence movement over perceived betrayal by Brussels. The Catalan movement for independence, as well as a number of internal and strategic errors, seriously misjudged the interest and willingness of the EU to countenance the break up of Spain. Yet, the EU is an alliance of states.

The EU has been through repeated crises since and it seems astonishing that the leaders of Catalan independence thought the bloc might be supportive of further disruption. While accommodation might have been made for Scotland, this was because the British state was prepared to accept the separation of 5m Scots from a Britain of almost 65m should they vote for it in a referendum.

Why independence movements in Scotland and elsewhere are tongue-tied over Catalonia. With Spain hostile, any separation of Catalonia could only be highly destabilising, with potential knock on effects in a Europe gradually recovering from the financial crisis. Since the autumn of , there has been a dramatic resurgence of Spanish nationalist sentiment in both Catalonia and Spain and a receding possibility of reforms of the Spanish constitution to adopt real federalism.

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