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The Iraqi and Syrian civil wars, the rise of the Islamic State, the continuing instability in Lebanon, historic and ongoing antipathy with Armenia, and an uneasy relationship with NATO ally Greece are all significant challenges. Both Russian and Turkish heads of state are publicly outraged, no apologies seem forthcoming, and sophisticated new anti-air missiles will be placed in Syria by Russia.
It is a tactical and operational crisis, with high-stakes considerations. What therefore faces Turkey and the West is a geopolitical choice of extraordinary importance: We here in the United States should do all in our power to encourage Turkey to be part of the European and transatlantic communities. Letting them drift away would be a profound geopolitical mistake for the West.
Turkey has a population of nearly 80 million, positive demographic trends, a diversified and growing economy that is easily in the global top 20, excellent infrastructure and industrial capability, the second largest military in NATO, and a deep sense of national pride.
Despite a current economic slowdown, a huge Syrian refugee population approaching 2 million , significant political challenges presented by the Kurdish minority, and an active insurgency, the nation has maintained a democratic and secular tradition, albeit under some internal pressure to move in a more Islamic direction. But the Russian shoot-down is merely a symptom of what has been building in the region.
But the events in the months before the shoot-down were increasingly confrontational: Now, that relationship will probably crater.
Turkey has turned to NATO for emergency consultations, which will occur this week. As the world assesses the fallout from the Russian shoot-down, there are several lessons that emerge at each level:.
At the tactical level, this was an entirely predictable event which must be avoided going forward. There are too many militaries flying missions over Syria without any level of cooperation.
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The international community should use this as an object example to create a high-level expert group to untangle the dangerous battle space. We desperately need tactical protocols for aircraft to use with each other to avoid another inadvertent incident.
One level up, operationally, there is a need for a battle management system across the theater. These large and capable planes can provide a look-down radar picture and provide de-confliction assistance. They could do so operating out of Turkish airbases and over Turkish airspace. Strategically, the shoot down crystallizes the difficult choices ahead in Syria.
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