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Profits are Better Than Wages: Wilson will throw a lot. A good share of them, especially as the game drags on, will be deep, lower-percentage throws. New England also has mediocre cover linebackers, so we should see a decent number of midrange throws to poorly covered slot receivers and tight ends mixed in with the bombs. I'll go with the over. My divining rod random number generator random guess expert opinion is that I have no idea what the first play will look like.

Like I said, there will be a shot play. Wilson will hit one, even though it may not go for a touchdown. This is where a big chunk of that passing yardage will come from. Wilson is going to be testing New England's secondary deep all game, and a few of those throws are going to connect for big yardage. Perhaps even huge yardage.

Red-zone play-calling is where gameplanning will be most important, and I have as yet no idea how it will play out. If the Seahawks throw in the red zone, there will be more Wilson touchdown throws. Banal, but I cannot go any further at this point. I think New England's rushing defense is stout enough to make red-zone passing a more attractive option than an all-Lynch pounding attack. I will say last week's sloppiness was an aberration not likely to be repeated in a controlled environment.

I will think that Pete Carroll will try to get Wilson more involved in the running game than he did last week. I don't think it will matter, however. The Patriots are going to keep contain rushing the edge and throw in a spy for good measure. Wilson will get his yards, but he's not going to break a long one, which is what a quarterback needs to do to go over 40 yards. The Patriots defense does not come with the same "please run read-option" sign as the Packers defense, but I still expect to see it this week.

We saw with Colin Kaepernick against Green Bay and Atlanta two years ago how the defense can control whether the quarterback keeps the ball. I figure there will be five or six designed runs or options, which leaves two to three for broken plays and scrambles. One of those scrambles may very well be the first recorded rushing attempt, so I'll take the under. As a quarterback, Wilson is tricky. Some of those sacks are scrambles that fail to gain yardage; a designed pass play with a run option where he is tackled at the line of scrimmage is a sack and not technically a rushing attempt.

The Patriots are going to make Wilson beat them with his arm, so I don't see any long runs in the cards. Of course, if you force Wilson to keep, you need to account for him. Wilson doesn't really sneak and throwing off the option will be much more effective in the red zone than running, so I'll say no. I think Lynch will ground out a lot of yards in the back and mid zones. Enough to put him near enough for the day. Like Gronkowski, betting against a team heavily featuring its best player is just silly.

I actually think Lynch is going to average somewhere in the low 4s, so hitting the average on the first attempt, fully rested and ready to run people over, seems like a good bet. On the other hand, I just don't see Lynch breaking a long one when he'll be such a focus of the front seven. Wilson is going to have to throw some checkdowns in the face of pressure.

My passing game pessimism for Seattle absolutely does include Lynch as part of it. After I say yes , watch Russell Wilson pick up a couple of rushing touchdowns. On the one hand, Baldwin is Seattle's best receiver and a reliable target for some of Wilson's favorite routes. On the other hand, a man-heavy Patriots team could choose to match up Darrell Revis against him and shut him down. On the other other hand, that seems almost like a waste of Revis' talent.

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On the other other other hand, I do not know the best way to use Revis against a team like the Seahawks. A very tentative over. Baldwin is going to be the guy working the middle of the field and finding holes in the zone. I think he'll get more than four receptions just on long plays where the defense pays too much attention to Wilson and not enough to the receivers behind them.

I seem to keep going under on length of the first play, so why not here as well. The Patriots are going to be expecting a load of slants on third-and-long. They might convert, but that takes away Baldwin's best opportunity for serious YAC. I think he ends up under. While he could be the guy, I would expect Baldwin to be the complement to the deep shot player s , not the deep shot player himself. If Seattle gets anywhere near the red zone, you'll see a lot of play action and fades to Baldwin. I only like Kearse potentially on shot plays against the New England secondary.

My lack of faith in Kearse outside of potential shot plays actually makes me want to say over here, just because I have more faith in Baldwin to convert third down on a slant route. But I may just be underrating him as well. Which means if anything connects, it will be in the yard range anyway. Unless he gets in on a long touchdown, I don't see Kearse really playing a viable threat in the end zone. The very best part of this game is going to be watching Chancellor flying around the field. I dislike the way he throws his upper body at ball carriers, but that's how safeties play nowadays.

Perhaps Tony Dungy and I can discuss this complaint over some sarsaparilla. Really fun to watch. I'll bet on fun, and maximize his involvement. Given Tom Brady 's limitations as a deep ball thrower and the presence of Earl Thomas , plus the aforementioned scorekeeping issue, I expect to see Chancellor a lot as an underneath defender at this Week 22, ready to contribute against the run game and the short pass game. On the other hand, if New England only runs so many offensive plays, there will only be so many tackles to go around.

Wright is my guess as the likeliest person to go under , but not for any specific reason I can pinpoint. Tom insisted that we include a linebacker in the tackle props for Seattle. Sometimes I hate Tom. I'm going with the under just out of spite. While Seattle has an above-average Adjusted Sack Rate 6. Still, one sack isn't that hard to come by. Lowest Adjusted Sack Rates among quarterbacks with at least attempts: You know Brady is going to try it. Just to assuage his innate smugness.

If the world doesn't implode over those passing attempts, I like Sherman's chances of coming down with one. On 24 Seattle points, Hauschka is likely to have six of them, three extra points and on field goal. Before putting money down on this bet, I would light my money on fire. I have always wanted, in a very vague and non-defined version of "wanted," to watch a dollar bill burn. Betting on a random proposition is not much different than that.

Still , but at least this is something other than random chance. While scoring would not actually win the game this time around, I'm not putting any bets on Seattle's somnambulant first-half offense. I do think there will be a wild finish as the Seahawks try to make up for lost time. See above, though note the below odds indicating the winner of the game is likeliest to score last.

While I don't see this match being a defenseive slugfest, there is going to be a huge strategic advantage in scoring first. I think it dictates the game, so yes. Do I hedge my Patriots prediction, especially considering the odds and what history tells us? I do think the game will be close, but I still see a persistent New England lead, so no.

You know, if it were just field goal, then I wouldn't want any part of this. But you're giving me the safety? How can I resist!?! Field goal or safety. I think it's going to take some time for Seattle to dissect Belichick's script, so I like the odds on touchdown. Conversely, I think a drawn-out Lynch-based drive has a high probability of being Seattle's first scoring drive, and those often end in field goals. Or maybe Chancellor sacks Brady for a safety! The possibilities are endless! Changing the odds are not enough to get me to move off my Seattle Seahawks touchdown prediction.

Not buying Seattle's first-half offense. Only sort of buying Seattle's defense against New England's offense.

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With the Seahawks holding a lead, a New England Patriots field goal makes it a one-score game. Both the props and Tom are getting oddly specific. I suppose the overwhelming odds of field goals made them break it out a bit. Still, I like the sequence of a quick-strike Seattle touchdown followed by New England actually chewing up the clock, so I'll go with Seattle Seahawks touchdown Pass.

The Seahawks will lead at halftime, and the Patriots will have 7 points. Tom Will Seattle's halftime lead be , , or ? Two of the three are greater than 12, so I say over. Have any of your ultra-specific point breakdowns ever been remotely close? Anyway, late-game flourishes are their specialty. Against defenses who have been worn out thanks to their bad offenses, usually, but I believe in some magic! Seattle will have shot plays. I know from past seasons this number is in the abstract more reasonable than it still feels to me.

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That does not mean I like it. The only credible source of this long a touchdown is Kearse, and I already vetoed that prop. My guess is at least one team will have to grind out yards in the red zone. Under , there will be a one-yard touchdown. The Seahawks are just much more well equipped for long scores than the Patriots. As I have indicated several times, I like the Seattle Seahawks much more here, and would pick them at uneven odds.

Consider this another one the hypothetical "Tom who bets" would lay actual money on. This one feels much more like a toss-up to me. With Seattle Seahawks scoring more total touchdowns according to my made-up game forecast, I choose them. A score prediction includes five touchdowns, which is less than 5.

I think six sounds like a good bar. Especially with all of the penalties on Browner and We always underestimate the score in the Super Bowl. Which makes me wonder, how did I end up with a high-scoring game involving the Seahawks? I guess I just respect the Patriots' stupid offense too much. Seventeen points, the final field goal puts them under.

I would love it if Al Michaels made a sly reference to this prop when they kick that field goal. I think two is probably a good number, with a ton of field goals mixed in. This line seems really short, even for these two aggressive teams. They both have good enough kickers to try kicks in the highs easily. On the other hand, I think neither team is going to settle for goal-line field goals. This isn't quite a goal-line field goal, but for this Super Bowl I'm erring on the side of aggression.

Does this include fair catch kicks? The language -- "3 point field goals" -- makes me wonder a bit who crafted these props; unless University of Phoenix starts playing basketball during the game, I do not see how any field goals worth anything other than three points will be attempted. Thank god they specified three-point field goals. I was way too excited by the over before that qualification. Over anyway, because Seahawks.

I think I said two field goals earlier? I might be hallucinating that. Unfortunately, the second rule of prop bet extravaganza is that you never look at previous bets. A very interesting prop, but my game script prediction for both teams has them not passing so much, which strongly suggests under. Another nearly perfect line. I'm going to hedge a bit with this one since I have the opportunity to aggregate, and go with the under.

If Russell Wilson pass attempts goes over, I like this to go over as well. The Patriots are going to get some good opportunities for unblocked rushers. Wilson is good at evading pressure, but Belichick is good at catching opponents flat-footed. Pushing, if it were an option, would be incredibly tempting here notwithstanding my prediction on the number of pass attempts. One sack in normal play, another sack as the Patriots are attempting to come back, and the under is toast. I could go for 1. Even in a world of awful odds on team that wins coin toss wins game.

For that to be a break-even, you would expect about seven such games in an NFL regular season. There has not been a game where the winning team had less than 10 points since one of the greatest displays of quarterbacking in modern NFL history, when the Mark Sanchez - and Greg McElroy -led Jets defeated the Ryan Lindley -led Arizona Cardinals. That was in The Seattle Seahawks are my predicted winner and have better odds than the Patriots, making them an easy choice.

Odd plus odd equals even. Even plus even equals even. I'm not sure they thought this one through, going by that action. Wilson makes a big mistake on a midrange throw and one of the generic Some Guys New England has playing alongside Revis sees some daylight. There were 11 overtime games in the NFL regular season in None of them were tied at halftime. How is the Seahawks with a point margin longer odds than a point margin?

It's somewhat doubtful they can even score that many points, and if the Patriots offense produces its average score in non-Garoppolo games 31 points , the Seahawks will have scored sixty-some points. That is insane, and it would mean that both Brady and Revis died on the field, or something.

In which case Seattle will win by like a million points. To put this in perspective, Seattle's high score all year was 38 points against the hapless New York Football Giants defense. I guess the book just took that, assumed New England would get a touchdown, and called it a day? In any case, New England wire to wire.

New England Patriots 7 to 12 points. Better than random chance, still not as much fun as lighting money on fire might be. Nothing is more fun than lighting money on fire. I think Seattle will get there early, but will have trouble sustaining drives in New England Territory. What should be the line on a hypothetical "team to enter the red zone first in the game scores from the red zone first in the game"? Offhand, my guess based on no significant research would be in the to range.

I love the odds on no score, so I'm going to play against what I think will happen and bet on the obligatory late-half boneheaded Brady interception. I am split on which this will be, even in my made-up game scenario that will assuredly not come to pass, so I will allow the line to direct me to touchdown. I love this prop. The Patriots have such a consistent offense you want to think they score every single quarter, but the fact is they don't.

One long drive by your opponent and a three-and-out can take the whole quarter away from your offense. I have to go with No. Weird line, and not something I recall seeing in past years or would have expected. Given the Patriots will only be scoring three times, how can they score in every quarter? If I wasn't willing to take the yes on the Patriots, why on Earth would I take the Seahawks with the same odds? Given I have them scoring four times, I am oddly tempted to say yes and chase the reward here.

But no I still select. Gameflow is still somewhat opaque to me, so third quarter 's superior odds make up for the second quarter being likelier. Neither of these teams will take their foot off the gas, regardless of how the game goes. Sadly, there is no prop at all on the possibility of going to a fourth half of play. It happened in the USFL! One typo, and your partner never lets you forget it. This action is evil, but betting on a tie game between these coaches in the Super Bowl is just stupid. I believe in Kam Chancellor 's leap of faith!

No action likely on this prop, of course, but more field goals were missed wide right in the regular season so that is my choice here. There should not be, of course. Whether there will be, as we have seen in recent seasons, is another story. A very Platonic no. Arizona is not known for its cannoli , so no. I think Brady does a better job taking care of the ball than Wilson. Plus, an option offense has more points of ball transfer failure, so Seattle Seahawks.

I like the Seahawks to take control of the football and the Patriots to try to have to come back. With better odds, New England Patriots. I am not so confident in my imagined game script to endorse betting on a at In this world, where I am pretending to wager fake money and cannot pass, New England Patriots. New England does not waste times out. Seattle doesn't either, at least not Martzian levels of waste, but I see the Seahawks needing an in-play adjustment more than the Patriots.

Every single member of the Seahawks defense! Approximately seven thousand flags leave! Penalties are bad, but not that bad.

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It's Time To Shift: Which makes me wonder, how did I end up with a high-scoring game involving the Seahawks? News Corp HarperCollins Marketwatch realtor. View author archive email the author follow on twitter Get author RSS feed. I also have never heard the name Idina Menzel before. I am originally from Harare Zimbabwe in Africa.

Yes , more penalty yards wins. Get penalized for the win. It worked for the Seahawks last year. I think an aggressive game plan by both coaches leads to a quick pass interference as the officials assert the rules on two heavily penalized secondaries.

I would love to hear the explanation and react if the first penalty called in the game was disconcerting signals, which is a variety of unsportsmanlike conduct and, unlike illegal contact, does not fall under any other penalty.

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The Patriots just run more plays on offense than the Seahawks, and considering almost all coaches' challenges nowadays are close calls on conversions or long passes, I think Carroll is just going to have more opportunity or challenges. Given the standard necessary for overturn these days and the deference being paid to officials, play stands at even odds might almost be good enough to put real money on. Early two-point conversion-era Bill Belichick, like college Chip Kelly, would do it for the heck of it.

I think the math usually works out for two-point conversations late in the game. That said, this prop includes the possibility of no two-point try. The action is brutal, but last week's miracle notwithstanding I like the no here. No two-point conversion attempt at all in the game means no successful two-point conversion attempt. Now there is a line! Normally I'd really be tempted by the field, but this isn't last year's Broncos or this year's Packers.

I think I have to go with Gronkowski. Does the potential reward from choosing anybody else make me second-guess myself and choose anyone other than Lynch? Russell Wilson does, as a matter of fact. I'm glad that numbers can force you to second-guess your completely fabricated narrative, yes.

More completions, worse results. No, I didn't look at my previous bet. Also, my brain is draining out of my nose. I think this is another great line. I see a late-game surge getting past I have no idea why they're pushing Russell Wilson around 50 yards for this game. I have no idea what they're basing this on, except that maybe the Patriots linebackers are kind of slow. They are, but quarterback mobility is still mostly a function of disciplined line play. The Patriots have that. I'll take and the yards. Like I said earlier shut up, I invent and shed rules as I please , I expect one or two bombs to connect, which makes 40 yards an easy over.

Three receptions seems exactly right, though.

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Without a push, I'll take Wade averages more than 21 points per game, and Miami's foe the Celtics give up more points per game than anybody else in the Eastern Conference. Given my non-affection for Lynch's potential role as a receiver, Dwayne Wade points is the call. I don't think Lynch is going to see many passes.

If he does, they're outlets and the Patriots are good at bottling up dumpoffs. I do think Lynch will be run into the ground, however. Like his teammate Wade, Bosh averages more than 21 a game and has a potentially soft matchup. But while I do not like Lynch as a receiver, I do as a rusher. The Knicks face the Lakers, who will be without Kobe Bryant. That means we cannot do the Kobe Bryant prop, which means Mike had to shelve a perfectly good joke that was no funnier than any other joke we have tried to make this year. How dare you cast aspersions on my jokes. Also, aren't the Knicks terrible?

Le bleu, blanc, et rouge face the Arizona Coyotes, who are not particularly good, but I pick Carey Price saves anyway because of my Wilson passing attempts skepticism and the Montreal defense. On a serious note, Carey Price is playing out of this world and the Habs' defense is kind of terrible. Pacioretty is averaging somewhere in the range of three shots per game.

I think this is easily going for field goals. As of this writing, Pacioretty has shots in 45 games, an average of 3. Arizona faces an above-average number of shots. With only two field goals per my prediction, Max Pacioretty shots on goal triumphs handily. Sadly, Alex Ovechkin plays before the Super Bowl, or else he might take this prop as a personal challenge. Still, the man cleverly nicknamed "Ovie" averages less than 5. The game timing, plus my optimism on him, make Doug Baldwin receptions an easier call than I expected.

Crosby is a points monster and he's getting a week off before this game for a definitely-is-super-real-for-reals unspecified "lower body" injury. Crosby's lower-body injury, which by NHL injury reporting standards is probably a concussion, will keep him out of this weekend's NHL All-Star Game and the Penguins' first game back, but he will be available for Super Bowl Sunday and the showdown with Nashville, a fine defensive team. Russell Wilson TD passes.

Delon Wright plays basketball for the University of Utah, for those unfamiliar with him. Utah is playing USC, which currently ranks second-worst in the Pac in conference games in defensive efficiency. Wright is a high-volume, high efficiency scorer. Even with the Utes' slow pace, I will take Delon Wright points. For serious, I had to look Delon Wright up. Pan-sports fandom is really foreign to me. I like the cut of his jib, however, so I'll go with him. Tom Travis Trice is a Michigan State basketball player. He has reasonable efficiency and volume numbers, but the Spartans are facing their cross-state rival Wolverines.

Unusually for a John Beilein team, Michigan's problems have come mostly on offense and not so much on defense. If New England does only score seven points, Trice should beat them, but I will hedge and say First half points by Patriots. I bet they make Trice play with a properly inflated ball and everything. That just isn't fair. To paraphrase a joke a high school classmate once made, "Microscopic of even smaller? You get the benefit of the doubt. Considering is a reasonably expected result of the soccer match, I'll go with Tom Brady and the sport that actually features scoring.

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This is not the amount of minutes before I get bored watching UFC, since Blount is guaranteed to at least tie that. My optimism of his potential workload makes LeGarrette Blount rushing attempts an easy call. Blount is going to get a lot of touches, but I'm pretty sure whoever is rigging UFC fights won't let a big fight go under lows minutes. Speaking of jibs, and those whose cut of which I am fond, this Diaz fellow fits the bill.

Diaz wins, Patriots win. I guess Silva is the heavy favorite to win. Lacking any specific, or even general, knowledge of his or Diaz' abilities, I will take Silva wins, Seahawks win. That means the result of this bet for us will officially be left open when tell you how terrible we did the week after the Super Bowl, but we liked this prop so much we decided to include it anyway. As a long-time Woods pessimist if my then-co-workers and I believe in betting and betting each other, I could have made money on Woods not winning a major after the U.

Open and Edelman under selector, the thing that really concerns me about losing Tiger Woods Day 1 score at the Masters is if he fails to compete or finish and the bet is not invalidated. I feel I should point out that Aston Villa are making a serious attempt on the record for fewest goals scored in a Premier League season, and are actually conceding few enough to still not be that far down the table, so going with Brady seems smart.

Villa probably won't score but Arsenal is averaging close to 2 goals a game at home and their defense is Arsenal so they might let in a set-piece goal. The Russell Wilson rushing yards line looks like it's in the neighborhood of his season average. Maybe not the best way to project his yardage but it makes some sense. I think your model of how this game is going to go depends a lot on the level of predictive value you give to Wilson's performance last week.

Personally I think it mostly shows that Wilson is sneakily bad at playing in bad weather. He was pretty poor against the Saints last year in the playoffs and if memory serves a few of the games that made up his late season slump were played in inclement weather.

It makes some sense to me that a guy who derives most of his value from putting decent touch on long passes would suffer disproportionately from 20 mph winds. Both of his non-tip drill interceptions were bombs where Wilson apparently misjudged the wind and wound up leaving the pass way short.

Seeing as weather won't be a factor in Glendale I think we're more likely to see Wilson-vs-Carolina than Wilson-vs-Packers. Tom Brady is a cheater now, Mike. Ladies don't like cheaters. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson isn't an old man who's soon to retire and be underfoot around the mansion all day screwing up established routines. Wilson also has hair that's curly like lambs wool, and he's got the courage to show his sensitive side, even in public.

Besides, no one falls in love in Boston. The closest thing to that is Good Will Hunting where the happy ending is a successful guy abandoning his loser friends in the final scene. Seattle on the other hand, is a magical place where even a noodle armed single dad can find love rowing a boat 30 miles in 10 minutes.

Outside of the guys who rob banks to feed oxy habits demographic, everything points to Russell Wilson being easily the dreamiest QB. Typical East Coast bias. Is the "official U. National Anthem" only the first stanza? Because otherwise, that bet should be really easy, since no one ever sings the rest. I've never heard any Katy Perry songs. And after the Super Bowl, I still won't have. I also have never heard the name Idina Menzel before. Menzel's a Broadway musical actress, until recently best known for originating Elphaba in Wicked.

I say until recently because she voiced Elsa in Frozen, in which capacity she recorded Let it go , so that horrible noise you may have heard emanating from any under 10s you've come across in the last six months is an attempted imitation of her. The extent of what I've ever seen or heard of Frozen is the title and pictures of the goofy looking snowman, so I am probably luckily unaware of the song. And that explains why I had never seen her name before. The snowman is essentially the Jar Jar Binks analogue - pretty insufferable, although his solo number is a nice comic ditty.

The song is a well-crafted if not especially remarkable uplifting MT power ballad which a regrettable number of small children insist on constantly attempting to sing. The film, despite some real structural problems, is actually rather good. I can't stand watching Disney cartoons because I hate those big power ballads so much.

I don't like that type of song anyway, and for whatever reason I especially hate Disney's. I used to blame Alan Menkin, but I don't think he's been writing them for a while. Even when I was a child, I always fast-forwarded through them. Recommended if you haven't seen it: How It Should Have Ended: