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The more benign view of China that prevailed in the s and s has given way to one that sees China as a major threat to the US. Here one can identify an element of economic statecraft and thus more strategic thinking. But the immediate relevance to trade is that China is seen as unfairly supporting domestic industries, stealing western technology and thus robbing the US of jobs.
What seems clear is that the US has turned against existing rules and reverted to a more power-based approach to trade policy. But the real question is whether this is short term or a more enduring trend and this in turn depends on the policy process in the US. A feature of the current policy is that decision-making occurs among a very small group of political appointees and President Trump.
This is a paradox given that the populist support garnered in the Trump election campaign owed much to his argument that US trade policy was being taken by a much larger policy elite that included a range of economic interests and Congress. Populism is normally defined as action by the many against a self-serving political elite. The leading political appointees in the Trump Administration generally share this view and have developed their ideas on trade in the s when the US was more able to wield the threat of market closure.
Other interests and institutions that have traditionally shaped trade policy are not engaging with the change in policy.
Private sector interest groups, which political economy models tell us determine US trade with their campaign donations, and which could be expected to be more concerned about the future role of the US in global competition, seem hesitant to challenge what most agree is economically damaging trade protection. The tax cuts and deregulation introduced by the Administration, strong economic growth and a buoyant Wall Street are seen as counterbalancing the costs of the tariffs. Large global firms are less threatened by efforts to penalize trade with China, as they can switch to other production locations.
The US Congress has also been silent. Broadly speaking this can be put down to the confusion created by the radical turn in policy and lack of consensus on how to respond. The Republicans have been happy with the tax cuts and deregulation measures.
Many existing trade agreements would benefit from modernisation. Loading comments… Trouble loading? The leading political appointees in the Trump Administration generally share this view and have developed their ideas on trade in the s when the US was more able to wield the threat of market closure. Previous post Next post. In the s, Ronald Reagan initiated a military spending race with the Soviet Union that ended up altering the global balance of power in ways that affected many countries worldwide.
Members of Congress and Senators are wary of moving to oppose Trump because they fear retribution from Trump supporters in their districts or states. The process of opening world markets and expanding trade, initiated in the United States in and consistently pursued since the end of the Second World War, has played an important role in the development of American prosperity. In terms of the U. Such gains arise in a number of ways.
Expanding the production of America's most competitive industries and products, through exports, raises U. Shifting production to the most competitive areas of our economy helps raise the productivity of the average American worker and through that the income they earn.
With the ability to serve a global market, investment is encouraged in our expanding export sectors and the rising scale of output helps lower average production costs. It firmly believes its industries need protection against the dominance of multinational companies.
But it has some of the biggest companies in the world, such as Alibaba, Huawei, and Tencent. But far from the US and China coming to the table and forging an agreement to open up trade, more rounds of trade barriers could be announced with growing economic damage and no resolution in sight.
That would potentially overturn the whole worldwide trading system with dire consequences. She is the author of The Great Economists: Asia Pacific Global economy Economics comment. Order by newest oldest recommendations. Show 25 25 50 All.
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