The Way the Wind Blows: Climate Change, History, and Human Action (Historical Ecology Series)
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The Way the Wind Blows. Climate Change, History, and Human Action. Edited by Roderick J. McIntosh, Joseph A. Tainter, and Susan Keech McIntosh. Editorial Reviews. Review. This book not only represents the 'state of the art' of current The Way the Wind Blows: Climate Change, History, and Human Action (Historical Ecology Series) - Kindle edition by Roderick J. McIntosh, Joseph A.
Anthropology Explored, Second Edition. How the Maya Built Their World. Emergence and Collapse of Early Villages. Ancient Households of the Americas. On the Periphery of the Periphery.
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This book not only represents the 'state of the art' of current discussions, but it also sets the agenda for future thinking and research on how humans produce and respond to climate change. This book defines and occupies new ground Other titles from Columbia UP. Carboniferous Giants and Mass Extinction. The Big Cats and their Fossil Relatives. Mammoths, Sabertooths, and Hominids. What the Fossils Say and Why it Matters. Fossil Mammals of Asia.
Triassic Life on Land. The Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event. When the Invasion of Land Failed. All such decompositions begin with a multiplicative identity, a variation of the well-known I-PAT equation as applied to greenhouse gas emissions. I-PAT describes the environmental impact I of human activities as the product of three factors: The goal in such exercises is to quantify the importance of the P, A, and T variables in producing environmental impacts, usually in order to prioritize policy recommendations for reducing them.
However, such exercises suffer from a long list of ambiguities inherent in decomposing index numbers such as the I in I-PAT that make results difficult, if not impossible, to compare. There are a number of ways to perform the decomposition, and each method leads to a different result.
In addition, the choice of variables to include in the decomposition, differences in the level of disaggregation, the need to consider interactions between the variables on the right-hand side of the equation, and the inertia built into trends in individual variables all affect the results and complicate interpretation. These ambiguities have been the basis of attacks on methods of quantitative analysis and have generated heated scientific debates about the relative importance of various factors without, however, resulting in any clear resolutions. An alternative approach to analyzing the role of population in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions has been sensitivity analysis —that is, comparing scenarios from an energy-emissions model in which various assumptions about driving forces are tested in a systematic way.
Models used in such studies have ranged from simple I-PAT -type formulations to more complex energy-economy models.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND POPULATION
Most work to date has focused on the influence of population size: On balance, the results indicate that although population momentum limits the plausible range of population sizes over the next several decades, in the longer term alternative patterns of population growth could exert a substantial influence on projected emissions. Incorporating relationships between population growth and income growth can substantially change the emissions expected from particular demographic and economic scenarios, but does not significantly change the sensitivity of results to alternative population growth assumptions.
Work focused on both direct energy use by households and indirect use energy used in the production and transport of other goods consumed by the household has identified household characteristics as key determinants of residential energy requirements. Household size appears to have an important effect independently from income , most likely due to the existence of substantial economies of scale in energy use at the household level.
Age is also important: Other things equal, households headed by the middle-aged tend to have higher consumption and energy requirements than those headed by the young or the old. These patterns, when combined with projected changes in the composition of populations by age and living arrangements, imply that compositional change may have an important effect on aggregate energy use and emissions above and beyond the scale effect of population size.
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There have been few studies of the potential for urbanization and spatial patterns of settlement in general to affect future greenhouse gas emissions. Generally, this factor is considered only implicitly in emissions scenarios by assuming it to be essentially an income effect. However, analysis of cross-national variation in energy use and emissions suggests that urbanization leads to greater emissions above and beyond the influence of per capita income.
Demographic factors will strongly influence the effects that climate change may have on society, as well as influencing the ways that societies respond to those effects. Perhaps most directly, the expected increase in the population of low-lying coastal areas as urbanization and urban deconcentration proceeds is likely to exacerbate the effects of future sea level rise associated with global warming, including increased damage from extreme weather events. In addition, there are potential impacts—some of which might be positive—on agricultural production, one of the most intensively studied areas of climate change consequences; at the same time, population growth will raise the demand for food and fiber.
The potential for climate change to expand the numbers of environmental refugees has also attracted wide interest. While global climate change may not presage a century of massive refugee movement, stresses associated with global change may intensify the pressures that already drive internal, regional, and intercontinental migration. Future levels of fertility, population growth, and age structure will each play a role in societal responses to the effects of climate change. For the remaining high-fertility countries, a case can be made that lower fertility at the household level and slower population growth at the regional and national levels would ease the challenges faced by countries in the areas of health, migration, and food production.
A qualification specific to health is that lower fertility accentuates population aging and thus puts pressure on health resources. Another, general, qualification is that policies affecting fertility are unlikely to be key strategies, since more direct means of improving social resilience under conditions of stress are available.
Among these are better management of agricultural resource systems, more vigorous development and equitable distribution of health resources, and elimination of institutional rigidities that trap impoverished populations in environmentally unstable environments. Many population-related policies—such as voluntary family planning and reproductive health programs, and investments in education and primary health care—improve individual welfare among the least well-off members of the current population.
They also tend to lower fertility and slow population growth, reducing GHG emissions in the long run and improving the resilience of populations vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, they qualify as winwin policies of the sort identified for priority action in analyses of the potential effects of climate change. The existence of a climate-related external cost to fertility decisions lends support to such programs, not only because they assist couples in having the number of children they want, but also because they tend to lower desired fertility.
Several studies have estimated the magnitude of these external factors to be on the order of hundreds to thousands of dollars per birth.
These estimates depend on a number of factors, including geographical location on average, births in developing countries where consumption is lower have a smaller external effect than births in industrialized countries , the magnitude of assumed future greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the costs of emissions reductions, and the discount rate. Nonetheless, the conclusion that the external costs are substantial appears to be robust, partly because meeting long-term climate change limitation goals will eventually require steep emissions reductions, and a smaller population inevitably reduces the need for the most expensive emissions reductions at the margin.
These conclusions do not imply that population policies are the most effective or equitable policies for addressing potential problems of climate change. More direct means of reducing GHG emissions and enhancing the functioning of institutions are available. Arguably, however, policies related to population should be part of a broad range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve social resilience to the expected effects of climate change, and of global environmental change in general.
Population-related policies have not yet entered explicitly into serious discussions of climate change policy. Little consideration has been given even to differential population growth among industrialized countries when negotiating country-specific emissions reduction targets. This is likely due to the sensitivity of the issue, given the long-running debate over the relative importance of population size and growth, as compared to high levels of per capita consumption, in affecting the environment in a deleterious fashion.
O'Neill, and Stuart R.
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