Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency (Adelphi series)

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Towards a brave new arms industry? Adelphi Papers by Jeffrey Herbst. Syria under Bashar al-Asad: However, the main points of the first draft have been leaked to local media outlets. Arab Sunni political disenfranchisement in Iraq has been identified by both U. Since , the US government has helped initiate programs to help integrate Iraqi Arab Sunnis into the new democratic political process in Iraq.

The historical settlement initiative is currently under consideration by both Shia and Sunni political stakeholders. It is expected that the political settlement initiative will gain traction after ISIL is driven out of Mosul. The main goal of the historical settlement is to stabilise Iraq politically in order to prevent the return of extremist groups like ISIL.

On the one hand, the Kurdistan Regional Government KRG has announced its intention to initiate talks with Baghdad for peaceful seccession from Iraq [26].

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On the other hand, Arab Sunnis are demanding more province-level powers for provinces with a demographic Sunni majority. Furthermore, the Iraqi political system might not be mature enough yet to manage decentralised units of governance. The relationship between the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq the KRG and the central government in Baghdad since has not always been straightforward. For any political settlement in Iraq to succeed, there are three main conditions that must first be met. Firstly, relevant Sunni stakeholders should be included.

The Iraqi government has already excluded a wide range of opposition figures and forces, accusing them of extremism and Baathism. Those excluded accuse the Iraqi government of discrimination and the abuse of executive and judicial systems. If the Iraqi government intends to reconcile with Participants alone, the political settlement will not achieve its goals. Secondly, there must be a well-defined mechanism of accountability to make sure that parties to the political settlement make good on their promises.

Arab Sunnis claim that one of the main reasons behind the collapse of previous political settlements in Iraq was the failure of the Iraqi government to meet its commitments. A prominent Iraqi politician told me: The backbone of any political settlement is a guarantor who is powerful enough to effectively monitor the application of the political settlement. Otherwise, the fate of the historical settlement will be no different from the previous initiatives — inevitable failure.

There is another aspect to this that cannot be ignored and is at present often neglected by analysts on this topic. It must be appreciated that there is a group of Arab Sunnis who do not see themselves as being represented by either the Participant or the Rejectionist Sunnis. This politically silent Sunni community [31] is waiting for an alternative beyond ethno-sectarian fault-lines. The Green Zone political process has been practically an exclusive club for those who had the chance to join the political process in One way to restructure the political impotence within Iraq is by reviewing the current elections law.

Intra-group Fractures in Iraq Paper Series (I): The Sunni Arabs’ Political Crisis

The introduction of new political contenders is further hindered by corruption in the current system. After the Saddam regime was toppled, corruption in Iraq became a major problem. Scandals of corruption in Iraq often involve senior officials, their family members, and associates, together totalling billions of U. The Iraqi political scene is multi-layered, complex, and fraught with generational issues. However, it could prepare the ground for structural political changes with the aim of bringing lasting peace in Iraq. The Arab Sunni disenfranchisement, both real and perceived, has been a major impediment to peace in Iraq.

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It is about time the Iraqi government and international stakeholders take serious steps to address Sunni Arab grievances. Sunni political disenfranchisement and intra-Sunni divisions are among the main impediments to peace and stability in Iraq. The historical settlement provides a framework under which reconciliation may be possible. This article argues that a national reconciliation between sects and within sects is required to achieve peace and stability.

The historical settlement might be the last chance for Iraqis, both Shia and Sunni, to reconcile under a united Iraq.

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Post-ISIL Iraq needs a representative government in Baghdad committed to reconciliation which can accommodate and address the fears of traumatised Iraqi communities. Such a government cannot be formed without a framework under which restorative politics are possible — a real political settlement. Iraqi Arab Sunnis, like Shias and Kurds, are not a homogenous group.

There are different forces and ideologies driving the political agenda of Arab Sunnis in Iraq. Crucially, the historical settlement should not focus solely on reconciling with Sunni political figures but also with the Sunni community. As part of the historical settlement, it is argued here, a general amnesty in Iraq should be focused on the release of political prisoners detained under counterterrorism laws instead of focusing solely on the pardoning of prominent Sunni figures supposedly unjustly persecuted by the Shia-led Iraqi government.

Another important issue is the existence of Shia militias in Iraq. Shia militias represent a major obstacle to peace in Iraq because of their sectarian character and cross-border sectarian ambitions.

The institutionalisation of Shia militias under the PMUs means further disfranchisement of Sunnis because Iraqi Arab Sunnis and several international organizations [36] accuse Shia militias of committing sectarian crimes against Sunnis. In addition, Shia militias are destabilizing the Middle East in general. Iraq, constitutionally, [38] is a federal state. The only federal region in Iraq, however, is the Kurdish region.

The majority of active Sunni political players are calling for decentralization of powers in Iraq. They argue that decentralization of power would help stabilize provinces with a Sunni demographic majority. In the absence of a sponsor state, would different Sunni political currents be able to cooperate for the common good of their sect?

Michael Kohler

The answers to these questions will determine the fate of Sunnis in Iraq. At present the Sunni political scene appears static. Sunni political and community leaders are divided. There are no known intra-Sunni initiatives towards reconciliation. At the same time, no state in the region has made any serious effort to help unite Sunni political groups. These are all considerations that those drafting the historical settlement must appreciate. The Sunni Predicament in Iraq. Tariq al-Hashemi in January [voice recorded].

Muthana al- Dhari, H. Atheel al-Nujaifi, and others who chose to stay anonymous. Iraq Political Settlement Project — No progress.

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