In the Wake of the Arab Spring

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People Power topples Ben Ali regime". Retrieved 26 January Archived from the original on 16 November Archived from the original on 25 June Retrieved 5 January Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. Archived from the original on 27 November Retrieved 16 February Archived from the original on 27 January Archived from the original on 28 January Retrieved 27 January Archived from the original on 18 March Archived from the original on 23 November Retrieved 23 November Archived from the original PDF on 26 November Retrieved 21 November Archived PDF from the original on 17 June Retrieved 28 January US Embassy to begin voluntary evacuation flights Monday".

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Retrieved 9 April Retrieved 11 March Doctors targeted in Bahrain". Archived from the original on 15 May Retrieved 14 June Archived from the original on 30 October Lessons from the Arab Spring". In Emerson, Michael; Youngs, Richard. Democracy's Plight in the European Neighbourhood: Struggling Transitions and Proliferating Dynasties.

Centre for European Policy Studies. Strong Societies and Weak States: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. Transaction costs, institutions, and economic performance. Archived from the original on 21 March Archived from the original on 15 November International Journal of Communication. A conceptual framework for understanding the social median the Arab Spring", Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations , Archived from the original on 9 October Geopolitics Of The Arab Spring.

The Myth of Authoritarian Stability". Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring".

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Journal of Economic Perspectives. Archived from the original on 12 October Archived from the original on 28 October Retrieved 29 October Causes, Issues and Solutions". Al Jazeera Research Center. Archived from the original on 4 September Retrieved 4 June Retrieved 18 October Closing the Jobs Gap.

Parsing the Differences between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya". Political Ideology in the Arab World: The demon We Don't Know: Davies, Thomas Richard The Middle East in the Balance. Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies". The Dawn of the Arab Uprisings: End of an Old Order? Kaye, Dalia Dassa More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World.

Political Reform in the Arab World. Comparing the Uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain". Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East. Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Roberts, Adam , Michael J. Arabic language edition published by All Prints Publishers , Beirut, Gulf State Competition after the Arab Uprisings. Globalization, the environment and the future "greening" of Arab politics. Tausch, Arno Fall Middle East Review of International Affairs.

Tausch, Arno Spring The political algebra of global value change. General models and implications for the Muslim world. With Almas Heshmati and Hichem Karoui 1st ed. Nova Science Publishers, New York. Committee on Foreign Relations. Women and the Arab Spring: Amanda Jacoby, Tamil Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Arab Spring at Wikipedia's sister projects. Atlantic Revolutions Revolutions of Revolutions of Revolutions of Revolutions of — Protests of Central American crisis Revolutions of February 25th Movement Saudi Arabia: Women in the Arab Spring Algeria: Abdelaziz Bouteflika Ahmed Ouyahia Bahrain: Omar al-Bashir Hassan al-Turabi Syria: Egypt Libya domestic responses state's response Syria.

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Views Read Edit View history. In other projects Wikimedia Commons Wikinews Wikiquote. This page was last edited on 8 December , at By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Non-distribution of nationalised land and lack of extension services after reform proved to be an issue, particularly in Iraq.

At the same time, the capacity of cities to absorb rural migration flows proved limited. The infant industries of the import-substituting industrialisation strategies did not, in some MENA countries, grow up. They only shifted import dependency from manufactured to intermediate goods and contributed to a deterioration of the balance of payments. Informal sector employment increased as the formal sector and the bureaucratic apparatuses failed to provide enough job opportunities. New arrivals often retained their rural lifestyles as part of their livelihood strategies, exemplified by the raising of goats and poultry in backyards and on rooftops.

Alaa al Aswany describes this incomplete urbanisation and the ruralisation of cities in his novel The Yacoubian Building , in which he portrays a poor rooftop community of rural migrants in Cairo who lead seemingly separated lives from the more fortunate dwellers below, while the earlier, bourgeois tenants have moved to the suburbs. In the case of Egypt, a particularly prominent example, the government regulated cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane, beans and winter onions via an often paradoxical mix of production taxation and consumer subsidies.

In contrast, it protected livestock production by tariffs and bureaucratic import hurdles until Only the markets for fruit and vegetables remained free of government interference. This encouraged a shift of acreage into horticulture and fodder production, including clover birsim. Fiscal pressures were one reason for this, but the government was also alarmed about a widening food gap and declining self-sufficiency.

Liberalisation policies were pushed further in the s. Low oil prices and reduced opportunities for the acquisition of strategic rents after the end of the Cold War strained public finances. The overextended security states of MENA that relied on institutionalized networks of coercion on a limited economic base implemented neo-liberal reform agendas that cut government expenditure and support schemes.

By only cotton and sugar cane remained under government regulation in Egypt. On the consumption side the peak for food subsidies occurred in when they covered 20 commodities and accounted for 15 per cent of government spending. By this figure had declined to 6 per cent. Subsidies now only covered four commodities: Both reduced consumer subsidies early on, but still retain considerable producer subsidies. Turkey used to have a far-reaching programme of agricultural producer subsidies that entailed price supports, input subsidies and marketing monopolies.

These have been pushed back with policies that have favoured privatisation and the removal of trade barriers. Turkey is the seventh largest agricultural economy in the world.

It is one of the few countries in MENA that is a significant agricultural exporter and it has considerable self-sufficiency in cereals. It is also the second largest producer of melons, watermelons, strawberries and leeks and the third largest of lentils, apples, cucumbers, green beans, green peppers, chestnuts and pistachios USDA, c. Both countries have faced declining oil production and became net importers of oil and petroleum products by the first decade of the new millennium.

Reform measures have deeply affected rural populations. Syria embarked on an aggressive liberalisation drive in the s that aimed at cutting domestic spending and mobilising international private capital Hinnebusch, These policies accelerated by , benefits accrued to accomplices, urban clients of the business community and military—security networks, while rural areas were neglected Haddad, Small-scale farmers suffered from the withdrawal of agricultural support schemes, and—as a result—were highly vulnerable to the epic drought that wreaked havoc in Syria between and The resulting food insecurity and migration movements to cities in the west of Syria caused severe stress to the socio-economic fabric.

Law 96 was fully implemented in and pushed back the land reforms of the Nasser era Bush, ; Bush, The Egyptian Minister of Agriculture, Yousef Wali, was a driving force for the policy of economic liberalisation under Mubarak and a large landowner himself. The process of rolling back land reform was fraught with influence trading. Wali was stripped of his official positions following corruption charges in —a remarkable feat in a regime that was not known for its excellence in governance.

Thus these examples from Syria and Egypt illustrate how MENA food security has been affected by social inequalities, rural neglect, and exposure to volatile global markets for food imports. Hardly any country in the world is not reliant on other countries for at least some food items, while net export capacities are concentrated in a few countries FAO, ; MacDonald, Such food imports can provide security, but also constitute vulnerability.

Food importing countries like Singapore and Kuwait can be perfectly food secure if they have the foreign exchange to pay for food imports and world food markets are not disrupted by export restrictions or political crises. The lower the share of food imports as a share of total exports and net remittances, the more food secure a country is on a macro level see Table 8. Yet this does not preclude the existence of food insecurity in vulnerable households on a micro level. Furthermore, different approaches to measurement exist.

Here the MENA region does not score badly on average, with low food security risk.

The Experience of MENA

One can have enough calories, even too many of them, and yet be food insecure. In all, 30 per cent of the Egyptian population are obese, many of them poor, and all the while they face food insecurity due to a lack of micronutrients such as iron and vitamins. Besides poverty, uninformed dietary choices and increased consumption of junk food are contributing to a growing intake of calorie rich food.

This can have a lasting impact. Nutritional deficiency in the womb and during the first 1, days after birth can lead to stunting. It can affect the cognitive abilities and educational achievements of children for the rest of their lives. When poor people cannot afford a balanced and varied diet they have to resort to basic, calorie-rich food, either permanently or as a temporary stopgap solution in the case of sudden price spikes. Hence, the cost of food price volatility and inflation are only insufficiently measured by their short-term impact on financial indicators and nutrition.

By compromising the physical and mental abilities of children for life, both factors can have severe long-term developmental effects. The findings of the report are less positive for MENA countries. While only 5 to 15 per cent of children under five in the Arab world are underweight, between 15 and 25 per cent are too short for their age Woertz, b, Only Libya, Turkey, Iran and the oil-exporting Gulf countries spend less. For Jordan and Lebanon the figure is above 10 per cent. Despite these constraints on a macro level, Jordan has managed to achieve one of the best levels of food security among MENA countries on a micro level.

Libya, on the other hand, had one of the worst levels of micro-level food security even before its current internal turmoil began. And this occurred despite a very comfortable position on a macro level. The West Bank and Gaza face the worst food security situation on a macro level, as Food security has massively deteriorated and the Assad regime has used food embargoes to starve rebel-held areas into submission. Similar food security deterioration might apply to Libya. In sum, MENA countries do relatively well in terms of calorie provision and indices that measure undernourishment.

They do less well when broader issues—such as nutritional value, stability of supply, food accessibility and food safety—are taken into consideration. The latter partly depend on the quality of logistics infrastructure and on domestic fuel costs and might show different price dynamics than those of agricultural raw materials. In developed countries like the US people spend a relatively low proportion of their overall budget on food, and packaged foods constitute a large proportion of spending on food items see Figure 8.

Hence, inflation with regard to crops only affects a fraction of overall spending on food, and the impact on overall consumer price inflation is more limited than in developing countries where people spend a larger share of their income on food and rely less on processed and packaged foods. This is close to the figures for developing countries like Kenya, and considerably above other middle-income countries such as China or Russia. Hence, these MENA countries are particularly vulnerable to food price inflation. Only the smaller Gulf countries with their higher incomes have allocation profiles that resemble those of developed countries, with food accounting for less than 20 per cent of overall household spending see Figure 8.

Subsidy regimes have absorbed some of the global price hikes for consumers in MENA countries, but there has been pass-through of global food price rises by a factor of 0. With the exception of the United Arab Emirates UAE and Yemen, food prices in MENA countries are also downward-sticky—meaning that they adjust on the way up, but do not fall back to the same extent when price corrections occur on global markets Ianchovichina et al.

Overall consumer price inflation rose from 3. It has been argued that such food price rises were a contributing factor to the Arab-Spring protests. Jane Harrigan points out that this impact did not occur as a quasi-mechanical transmission, but should be seen in the broader context of socio-economic deterioration and a lack of political freedoms, both of which were in place prior to the protests.

The impact was also uneven: Domestic price increases in MENA have been considerably below international averages. Rather than causing outright depravation they led to a reorientation of household budgets towards basic food needs. Thus they compromised purchasing power for non-food items, which contributed to widespread grievances about stagnating or declining living standards that have been associated with economic liberalisation, corruption, and inequalities of wealth and opportunities Cammett et al. In at the time of the global food crisis, they stood at around 2 per cent for food in many MENA countries and—for fuel—reached more than 6 and 12 per cent, respectively, in Egypt and Syria.

Fuel subsidies have usually been considerably higher than food subsides: These expenditures on subsidies have been a substantial fiscal burden. In the cases of Morocco and Egypt, that burden accounted for 20 and 31 per cent, respectively, of total budgetary expenditure. This has raised questions about the sustainability of such spending. International organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund IMF have called for indiscriminate food and energy subsidies to be replaced with targeted aid for the poor. They are less distorting than subsidies on energy, which disproportionately benefit the middle and upper classes with their higher ownership ratios of cars and energy-using appliances air conditioning, washing machines, etc.

For this reason, and because they are much higher, energy subsidies are more likely candidates for further subsidy reforms than are food subsidies. Kuwait and Egypt both cut fuel subsidies in , but maintained food subsidies, although Egypt introduced a smart-card system to better target bread subsidies. Food subsidies have great significance with regard to political legitimacy. This could be seen during the Arab Spring when Egyptian protesters strapped loaves of bread to their heads. It is unthinkable that they would have done the same with gallons of gasoline.

Food clearly commands a greater emotional appeal and—because of their self-targeting nature—the abolition of subsidies on staple foods would disproportionately hurt the poor. Moving to targeted financial aid is easier said than done, as it requires considerable monitoring capacity. Financial aid can also be subject to considerable erosion via inflation, as the recent experience of Iran with subsidy reform has shown the Guardian , It provides for a significant proportion of food consumption and helps create livelihoods for a still substantial part of the population, even though its contribution to value added in GDP terms lags behind and the water consumption it requires is unsustainable in many cases Babar and Mirgani, Import dependence is most pronounced for cereals, sugar, and fats and oils, which are strategically crucial.

Dairy products are also imported to a large degree, while meat, fish and eggs show higher self-sufficiency ratios. Some countries, such as Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, even have export capacities for fruit and vegetables. In the past, food imports have been threatened. During World War II food imports were disrupted because of combat operations and lower shipping capacities; famines in the region were only averted by domestic production and the rationing and distribution system of the Allied Middle East Supply Center MESC in Cairo.

More recently the US contemplated food embargoes in the s in retaliation for the Arab oil boycott and the Iranian hostage crisis. In the s Iraq saw its food imports and oil exports cut off by a unilateral UN embargo Woertz, b. Even Jordan, with its limited natural assets and low self-sufficiency ratio, maintains production incentives for cereals Harrigan, a.

Egypt increased its self-sufficiency ratio with regards to wheat from 21 per cent in to 46 per cent in , mainly by abandoning wheat taxation and introducing improved seed varieties Kherallah et al. By , self-sufficiency had reached 60 per cent and Egypt announced a plan to reach complete self-sufficiency. Yet this aim has not yielded tangible results thus far and may prove impossible given resource constraints.

Arab Spring

Growing reliance on food imports is not going away. As it cannot be avoided it has to be managed. There have been subsequent corrections, but—overall—food prices are currently at structurally higher levels than their long-term averages of the preceding two decades. Various supply- and demand-side factors support these more elevated price levels, among them slowing productivity growth, environmental backlash and climate change on the supply side, and population growth, changing diets in emerging markets, and biofuels on the demand side OECD-FAO, At 92 million tons, its net imports are higher than the 66 million tons of East Asia, which has a much larger population.

Global net trade in cereals millions of metric tons. Over the last decade 70 per cent of global cereal exports were provided by only eight countries that comprised a mere 11 per cent of the global population. This global food trade is expected to rise in many countries—among them, the MENA countries—until , given prevalent trends of population growth, demand patterns, and agricultural productivity and production MacDonald, The term virtual water describes the water that is needed to produce a particular commodity.

Globally it accounts for 70 per cent of blue water withdrawal; in MENA countries the figure is even higher, around 80 per cent. More important still, around 70 per cent of global crops are not produced by irrigation agriculture that uses blue water, but by rain-fed agriculture. Such green or soil water cannot be metered, bottled or shipped by pipeline.

Thus it does not figure in the global statistics regarding total renewable water reserves, which only comprise surface and groundwater. Yet green water is extremely important for global food security and for the import needs of MENA countries. By importing rain-fed cereals from Brazil, Canada or Australia, MENA countries are effectively importing the rainfalls of these locations, and can benefit from them. The trade in crops and derived products constitutes 76 per cent of global virtual water trade and 68 per cent of this figure comes from green water. Currently global virtual water net exports are focussed on North America 40 per cent , Australia and New Zealand 40 per cent and South America 20 per cent.

Much more important is the growing interest of MENA countries in strategic storage, food trade logistics and trade initiatives. Like Asian food importers, MENA countries are poised to engage with the global food system more extensively and more proactively Woertz, a; Keulertz and Woertz, b. At the same time domestic agriculture and rural constituencies continue to play an important role in political development considerations.

In some countries agricultural production has actually had to be reduced in order to ensure water security Alterman and Dziuban, Agricultural productivity gains might be achieved in some cases, but countries like Egypt already have some of the highest wheat productivity rates in the world. In such cases there are no meaningful yield gaps to be closed Fischer et al.

Other measures that could lead to more sustainable agriculture in MENA countries include improved extension services, fighting desertification, climate change adaptation, better distribution networks and market access, waste reduction along the value chain, broader rural development programmes, and new approaches to the governance of collective range land CIHEAM, and Manufactured goods of Partnership member countries from the southern Mediterranean shore currently enjoy duty-free access to the EU and there is preferential treatment for exports of about 80 per cent of agricultural products.

Yet quantitative restrictions for some items remain and EU food safety standards can be a difficult hurdle for MENA producers to negotiate. Its agricultural exports almost doubled between and from EUR 4. Turkey and Morocco are the only MENA countries that run an agricultural trade surplus with the EU, but their levels have been decreasing. Further trade liberalisation would entail winners and losers on both sides.

EU producers of fruit and vegetables are concerned about competition from the south; MENA producers have similar fears with regards to cereal and livestock products from the north. The first changes are already visible in the eastern Mediterranean, which has witnessed an increased occurrence of drought NOAA, ; Breisinger et al. This calls for adaptation measures from MENA countries and for their increased participation in global mitigation efforts Luomi, Large-scale projects like dams, desalination, inter-basin water transfers, and tapping fossil groundwater aquifers have been the most prominent of these.

One reason for this approach is that the provision of water and other public services carries great weight in terms of political legitimacy in these states, especially those that are under authoritarian rule. Directly or indirectly financed by rents from resource extraction, they try to buy the consent of a general public that is excluded from political participation. Subsidies applied to water, food and energy are part and parcel of this social contract, alongside public sector jobs and health care services.

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